Independent salary research. Not affiliated with BLS, NBRC, AARC, or any employer. Figures are estimates based on BLS OES May 2024 data.

Respiratory Therapist Job Outlook 2024-2034
13% Growth, ~10,000 Openings Per Year

BLS projects much faster than average growth for respiratory therapy through 2034. Ageing population, COPD, and sleep apnea are the primary structural demand drivers.

13%

BLS growth projection

~10,000

Annual job openings

135,200

Total employed (2024)

3x faster

vs all occupations avg

BLS Projections: The Baseline

135,200

Employment 2024

BLS OES May 2024 baseline

152,700

Employment 2034 (projected)

13% growth from base

17,500

New positions added

Plus ~7,000/yr turnover replacements

The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (2024-2034 edition) projects respiratory therapists at 13% growth, classifying this as "much faster than average." The average for all occupations is approximately 4%. The 10,000 annual openings figure combines new positions with replacement demand from retirements and career changes.

What is Driving Demand

Ageing Population

73M+ adults over 65 by 2030

The baby boomer generation is entering the age of highest respiratory disease prevalence. COPD, heart failure, and pneumonia all increase sharply after age 65. Hospital admissions with a respiratory diagnosis represent the single largest driver of RT employment.

COPD Prevalence

16 million diagnosed Americans

COPD affects approximately 16 million diagnosed Americans, with an estimated additional 24 million with undiagnosed airflow limitation (NHLBI). Pulmonary rehabilitation programmes, home oxygen management, and exacerbation management all require RT involvement.

Sleep Apnea Awareness

30 million undiagnosed cases estimated

Growing public awareness and improved screening tools are driving sleep lab volumes. AASM estimates that more than 30 million Americans have obstructive sleep apnea but remain undiagnosed. Each new diagnosis potentially enters a sleep lab titration and CPAP education pathway staffed by RTs and sleep technologists.

Post-Pandemic Respiratory Capacity Expansion

Hospital vent capacity grew 30%+ in 2020-2022

Hospitals expanded ICU bed counts and ventilator inventory during 2020-2022. Many facilities are maintaining expanded RT teams to operate this capacity. The build-out of long-term acute care facilities (LTACHs) for ventilator-dependent patients is a growing sub-sector.

Home Health Shift

20%+ projected growth 2024-2034 in home health

CMS reimbursement changes and patient preference are accelerating the shift from inpatient to home-based management for COPD, home ventilator, and oxygen-dependent patients. DME companies and home health agencies are hiring RTs at rates that outpace hospital growth.

Neonatal Medicine Advances

Viability threshold now ~22-23 weeks

Advances in neonatal medicine mean more extremely premature infants surviving who require extended NICU ventilator management. Level III and IV NICUs at children's hospitals and academic medical centres are expanding RT staffing to meet demand.

Which Settings Are Growing Fastest

SettingProjected GrowthPrimary Driver
Home health and hospice20%+CMS reimbursement shifts, patient preference for home management
Sleep labs and outpatient15%+Sleep apnea awareness, CPAP prescription volume
Hospital outpatient / pulmonary rehab10%+Post-acute COPD management, insurance coverage expansion
Long-term acute care (LTACH)10%+Ventilator-dependent patient growth, post-COVID expansion
Level III/IV NICU8%+Lower viability thresholds, expanded neonatal capabilities
Hospital inpatient (ICU / floor)5-7%Steady demand; slower growth as outpatient absorbs volume

States with Fastest Projected Growth

Sun Belt and Mountain West states with high retiree in-migration show the strongest absolute employment growth projections. State figures from Projections Central (SOC 29-1126).

+18%

Florida

Largest retiree population; strong COPD and cardiac demand

+16%

Texas

Fast population growth; large hospital system expansion

+15%

Arizona

Retirement destination; high COPD from wildfire smoke exposure

+14%

Nevada

Las Vegas metro growing rapidly; desert respiratory conditions

+13%

Georgia

Atlanta health system growth; Grady, Emory, Piedmont expansion

+13%

North Carolina

RTP medical hub; UNC, Duke, Novant hospital growth

+12%

Washington

Tech economy driving healthcare investment; strong NICU centres

+10%

California

Large absolute base; high wildfire-related respiratory disease

State projections are 10-year estimates from Projections Central and are subject to revision. Actual growth varies by local economy and hospital system investment.

Automation and AI: Augmentation, Not Replacement

Closed-loop ventilator weaning systems (SmartCare/PS, INTELLiVENT-ASV) and AI-assisted pulmonary function interpretation are real and growing technologies. The net clinical impact is augmentation rather than displacement.

Where Automation Is Gaining Ground

  • - Closed-loop ventilator weaning protocol management
  • - AI-assisted spirometry and PFT interpretation flagging
  • - Automated CPAP titration algorithms for sleep studies
  • - Remote ventilator monitoring and early alarm systems

Where Human RTs Are Irreplaceable

  • + Emergency airway management and intubation
  • + Rapid response team physical presence
  • + Neonatal resuscitation and surfactant administration
  • + ECMO circuit troubleshooting and emergent management
  • + Patient and family education, adherence support
  • + Clinical judgment on complex multi-system deterioration

Bottom line: RTs who embrace clinical informatics, understand automated systems, and develop strong ICU and neonatal skills will benefit from automation tools rather than compete with them. The long-term projection remains net positive for employment.

New-Grad Hiring Climate in 2026

The extraordinary demand of 2020-2022 (COVID-19 surge) normalised by 2023-2024. The 2026 market is characterised by strong but sustainable demand, with pockets of shortage in rural areas and specialty units.

Urban Level I/II Trauma Centres

Competitive

Many candidates per open position. New grads who completed rotations at the facility have a significant advantage.

Rural and Critical Access Hospitals

High Demand

Ongoing difficulty filling positions. Many offer sign-on bonuses ($3,000-$8,000) and housing assistance for rural placements.

NICU and ICU Specialist

Shortage

NICU NPS and ECMO-trained RTs are in persistent shortage. New grads willing to specialise within 2 years can negotiate above-median salaries.

Long-Term Trends Through 2040

2026-2028

Home health RT growth accelerates as CMS HHVBP (Home Health Value-Based Purchasing) expands nationally. COPD readmission penalties drive hospitals to invest in outpatient RT-led pulmonary rehab teams.

2028-2030

Telehealth RT expands. Remote ventilator management for home-ventilator patients using secure video and data platforms creates a new category of outpatient RT role that does not require physical home visits for routine monitoring.

2030-2034

Full baby boomer demographic peak hits the healthcare system. Respiratory therapist demand peaks with the highest concentration of adults aged 75-85 in US history. COPD, heart failure, and post-surgical pulmonary care volumes highest on record.

2034-2040

Demand moderates slightly as boomer cohort ages through. AI-assisted ventilator management matures but does not reduce RT headcount. New roles in AI oversight, data interpretation, and telehealth coordination maintain employment levels.

Is Respiratory Therapy a Good Career?

An honest assessment.

3 Strong Reasons Yes

Short training, strong salary

2 years to a $56-60k starting salary that grows to $80k+ national median. Few 2-year degree paths match this return.

Stable, non-discretionary demand

People will always need respiratory care. The field proved recession-resistant and essential during the 2020 pandemic.

Meaningful, high-stakes clinical work

RTs respond when patients cannot breathe. The work matters in a concrete, immediate way that is hard to replicate in other healthcare support roles.

2 Honest Caveats

No advanced-practice ceiling equivalent to NP/CRNA

RTs cannot currently sit for advanced practice board exams that unlock a second major earnings step-change. The top of the RT ladder is management or travel, not independent practice.

Shift work is the norm, not the exception

Most hospital RT positions are rotating 12-hour shifts including nights, weekends, and holidays. If this work schedule is incompatible with your life, outpatient and home health RT roles exist but have lower base salaries.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the job outlook for respiratory therapists?+
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 13% employment growth for respiratory therapists from 2024 to 2034, much faster than the average for all occupations (4%). This translates to approximately 10,000 job openings per year from both new positions and the need to replace workers who retire or leave the field. Total employment is expected to reach approximately 152,000 by 2034.
Is respiratory therapy a stable career in 2026?+
Yes. Respiratory therapy is one of the more stable allied health careers due to the non-discretionary nature of respiratory care. Patients with COPD, asthma, heart failure, and premature birth cannot delay treatment. The field showed resilience through the 2020 pandemic and recession periods. The ageing baby boomer population guarantees sustained demand for cardiopulmonary services through at least 2040.
Will AI replace respiratory therapists?+
Unlikely in the near term. Closed-loop ventilator weaning algorithms and AI-assisted pulmonary function interpretation are genuine automation inroads, but they augment RT decision-making rather than replace the clinician. RTs perform manual airway procedures, respond to rapid deterioration, manage complex ECMO circuits, and provide patient and family education, all requiring physical presence and clinical judgment. RTs who understand automated systems and data interpretation are better positioned, not displaced.
Which settings are hiring the most respiratory therapists?+
Home health and outpatient settings are projected to grow fastest (20%+ through 2034). Sleep labs are growing at approximately 15%. Hospital outpatient pulmonary rehabilitation is growing at 10%+. Inpatient hospital RT is growing more slowly but remains the largest employer by absolute headcount. The shift toward chronic disease management in outpatient and home settings is the primary driver.
Is there a shortage of respiratory therapists?+
Yes, in specific regions and specialties. The greatest shortages are in rural areas, the Mountain West, and in NICU and ICU specialties. The post-pandemic surge normalised by 2024, but travel RT wages remain elevated compared to 2019 baselines, indicating continued demand pressure. NICU and ECMO specialist positions are particularly hard to fill, offering new grads a pathway to above-median salaries within 3-5 years.

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Sources: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 2024-2034 (SOC 29-1126). BLS OES May 2024. Projections Central state-level projections. CDC COPD surveillance data. AASM sleep apnea prevalence estimates. State growth figures are projections and subject to revision.