BLS projects much faster than average growth for respiratory therapy through 2034. Ageing population, COPD, and sleep apnea are the primary structural demand drivers.
13%
BLS growth projection
~10,000
Annual job openings
135,200
Total employed (2024)
3x faster
vs all occupations avg
135,200
Employment 2024
BLS OES May 2024 baseline
152,700
Employment 2034 (projected)
13% growth from base
17,500
New positions added
Plus ~7,000/yr turnover replacements
The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (2024-2034 edition) projects respiratory therapists at 13% growth, classifying this as "much faster than average." The average for all occupations is approximately 4%. The 10,000 annual openings figure combines new positions with replacement demand from retirements and career changes.
73M+ adults over 65 by 2030
The baby boomer generation is entering the age of highest respiratory disease prevalence. COPD, heart failure, and pneumonia all increase sharply after age 65. Hospital admissions with a respiratory diagnosis represent the single largest driver of RT employment.
16 million diagnosed Americans
COPD affects approximately 16 million diagnosed Americans, with an estimated additional 24 million with undiagnosed airflow limitation (NHLBI). Pulmonary rehabilitation programmes, home oxygen management, and exacerbation management all require RT involvement.
30 million undiagnosed cases estimated
Growing public awareness and improved screening tools are driving sleep lab volumes. AASM estimates that more than 30 million Americans have obstructive sleep apnea but remain undiagnosed. Each new diagnosis potentially enters a sleep lab titration and CPAP education pathway staffed by RTs and sleep technologists.
Hospital vent capacity grew 30%+ in 2020-2022
Hospitals expanded ICU bed counts and ventilator inventory during 2020-2022. Many facilities are maintaining expanded RT teams to operate this capacity. The build-out of long-term acute care facilities (LTACHs) for ventilator-dependent patients is a growing sub-sector.
20%+ projected growth 2024-2034 in home health
CMS reimbursement changes and patient preference are accelerating the shift from inpatient to home-based management for COPD, home ventilator, and oxygen-dependent patients. DME companies and home health agencies are hiring RTs at rates that outpace hospital growth.
Viability threshold now ~22-23 weeks
Advances in neonatal medicine mean more extremely premature infants surviving who require extended NICU ventilator management. Level III and IV NICUs at children's hospitals and academic medical centres are expanding RT staffing to meet demand.
| Setting | Projected Growth | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Home health and hospice | 20%+ | CMS reimbursement shifts, patient preference for home management |
| Sleep labs and outpatient | 15%+ | Sleep apnea awareness, CPAP prescription volume |
| Hospital outpatient / pulmonary rehab | 10%+ | Post-acute COPD management, insurance coverage expansion |
| Long-term acute care (LTACH) | 10%+ | Ventilator-dependent patient growth, post-COVID expansion |
| Level III/IV NICU | 8%+ | Lower viability thresholds, expanded neonatal capabilities |
| Hospital inpatient (ICU / floor) | 5-7% | Steady demand; slower growth as outpatient absorbs volume |
Sun Belt and Mountain West states with high retiree in-migration show the strongest absolute employment growth projections. State figures from Projections Central (SOC 29-1126).
+18%
Florida
Largest retiree population; strong COPD and cardiac demand
+16%
Texas
Fast population growth; large hospital system expansion
+15%
Arizona
Retirement destination; high COPD from wildfire smoke exposure
+14%
Nevada
Las Vegas metro growing rapidly; desert respiratory conditions
+13%
Georgia
Atlanta health system growth; Grady, Emory, Piedmont expansion
+13%
North Carolina
RTP medical hub; UNC, Duke, Novant hospital growth
+12%
Washington
Tech economy driving healthcare investment; strong NICU centres
+10%
California
Large absolute base; high wildfire-related respiratory disease
State projections are 10-year estimates from Projections Central and are subject to revision. Actual growth varies by local economy and hospital system investment.
Closed-loop ventilator weaning systems (SmartCare/PS, INTELLiVENT-ASV) and AI-assisted pulmonary function interpretation are real and growing technologies. The net clinical impact is augmentation rather than displacement.
Bottom line: RTs who embrace clinical informatics, understand automated systems, and develop strong ICU and neonatal skills will benefit from automation tools rather than compete with them. The long-term projection remains net positive for employment.
The extraordinary demand of 2020-2022 (COVID-19 surge) normalised by 2023-2024. The 2026 market is characterised by strong but sustainable demand, with pockets of shortage in rural areas and specialty units.
Competitive
Many candidates per open position. New grads who completed rotations at the facility have a significant advantage.
High Demand
Ongoing difficulty filling positions. Many offer sign-on bonuses ($3,000-$8,000) and housing assistance for rural placements.
Shortage
NICU NPS and ECMO-trained RTs are in persistent shortage. New grads willing to specialise within 2 years can negotiate above-median salaries.
Home health RT growth accelerates as CMS HHVBP (Home Health Value-Based Purchasing) expands nationally. COPD readmission penalties drive hospitals to invest in outpatient RT-led pulmonary rehab teams.
Telehealth RT expands. Remote ventilator management for home-ventilator patients using secure video and data platforms creates a new category of outpatient RT role that does not require physical home visits for routine monitoring.
Full baby boomer demographic peak hits the healthcare system. Respiratory therapist demand peaks with the highest concentration of adults aged 75-85 in US history. COPD, heart failure, and post-surgical pulmonary care volumes highest on record.
Demand moderates slightly as boomer cohort ages through. AI-assisted ventilator management matures but does not reduce RT headcount. New roles in AI oversight, data interpretation, and telehealth coordination maintain employment levels.
An honest assessment.
Short training, strong salary
2 years to a $56-60k starting salary that grows to $80k+ national median. Few 2-year degree paths match this return.
Stable, non-discretionary demand
People will always need respiratory care. The field proved recession-resistant and essential during the 2020 pandemic.
Meaningful, high-stakes clinical work
RTs respond when patients cannot breathe. The work matters in a concrete, immediate way that is hard to replicate in other healthcare support roles.
No advanced-practice ceiling equivalent to NP/CRNA
RTs cannot currently sit for advanced practice board exams that unlock a second major earnings step-change. The top of the RT ladder is management or travel, not independent practice.
Shift work is the norm, not the exception
Most hospital RT positions are rotating 12-hour shifts including nights, weekends, and holidays. If this work schedule is incompatible with your life, outpatient and home health RT roles exist but have lower base salaries.
Sources: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook 2024-2034 (SOC 29-1126). BLS OES May 2024. Projections Central state-level projections. CDC COPD surveillance data. AASM sleep apnea prevalence estimates. State growth figures are projections and subject to revision.